"If not a gathering, then a collapse", published on September 17, 2016 in the newspaper " Kommersant"According to the publication, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Defense are unable to agree on the amount of funding for the state armament program (SAP) for the period 2018-2025. This issue was raised at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, but even there it was not possible to remove at least part of the differences. Interlocutors " Kommersant claims that the estimates of financiers and the military differ by about 10 trillion rubles. There is less and less time left to find a compromise: by the end of 2016, the parties must summarize all proposals, and the draft state program must be approved by the head of state no later than July 1, 2017.

The last time the issue of ensuring SAP-2025 was discussed in the Kremlin on September 9. Then Vladimir Putin reminded the leaders of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Defense and other law enforcement agencies that when preparing the financial parameters of the state program, one should proceed from the fact that the armed forces should be provided with modern weapons and equipment that will allow "effectively and in full to solve the tasks of protecting Russia from potential military threats. He instructed to ensure the continuity of the new SAP with the state program for 2011-2020, as well as to fulfill the budget obligations and plans in the field of defense.

As in early July, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Finance again showed how differently they look at money.

Self-propelled artillery mount 2 S25M "Sprut-SDM1" and armored personnel carrier BT-3F developed by LLC "KKU" Concern "Tractor Plants" at the open exposition of the forum "Army-2016", 09/06/2016 (c) bmpd

"The meeting was held behind closed doors: after it there were no comments from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense or the Kremlin. Disagreements between Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who managed to return from the Crimea, where the final stage of the strategic command-staff exercises" Kavkaz - 2016,” two sources in the financial and economic block of the government told Kommersant. According to one of them, after the report of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin on a comprehensive assessment of budget expenditures for the future SAP, the parties began to discuss the parameters of the state program, but soon the discussion turned into The reason was the "diametrically opposed" estimates of the maximum amount of financing for SAP-2025, expressed by Messrs. Siluanov and Shoigu: the first spoke about 12 trillion rubles, the second - about the amount of about 22 trillion rubles. that, due to the unification of products, they managed to reduce the cost of SAP-2025 from 55 trillion to 30 trillion rubles.

At the meeting, the parties presented their arguments. Financiers argued that in the current economic realities, the budget would not withstand such a heavy load, and a sharp increase in defense spending would negatively affect the implementation of other programs, including social ones.

The military, in addition to the main thesis about the need to guarantee national security, turned to the provisions of Vladimir Putin's May decrees, according to which by 2020 the share of modern armament of the army should reach 70%. “If this is not done, then there is a risk of losing the current momentum of rearmament and sliding into degradation, to the level of a decade ago,” was how the military described the situation, according to the official, if their financial requirements were not met.

The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Finance have long been arguing about the amount of funding for the rearmament program. The current SAP-2020 was initially estimated at 36 trillion rubles, but under pressure from the financial and economic bloc of the government and then Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, its cost was reduced to 23 trillion rubles, of which 19 trillion rubles. received by the Ministry of Defense. This money was mainly to be used to strengthen the strategic nuclear forces (eight Borey submarine missile carriers with Bulava intercontinental missiles, Yars, Rubezh, Barguzin (railway-based) and Sarmat (with heavy liquid rocket), a new strategic bomber, missile defense systems and more). In 2010, the requests of the military were largely satisfied thanks to the high price of oil. "Now the situation is fundamentally different, our colleagues must put up with it," says Kommersant's interlocutor, close to the Finance Ministry.

There is little time left to find a compromise. Recall that SAP-2025 was supposed to come into force in 2016, but due to the unstable economic situation, Vladimir Putin postponed its adoption for two years (see Kommersant dated February 19, 2015). During the last meeting, the president instructed the interested parties to complete the compilation of proposals in the SAP by the end of 2016, and by July 1, 2017, to submit to him a draft state program for approval. According to a Kommersant source in the government apparatus, a series of interdepartmental meetings will be held by the end of the year, as well as one or two meetings of the military-industrial commission headed by Vladimir Putin.

In early July, the military is expected to transfer the plan of the state armament program for 2018-2025 (SWP-2025) for consideration to the collegium of the Military Industrial Commission for its further submission for approval to the President of the Russian Federation. But already today information has leaked to the press that the financing of the rearmament program for the army and navy will be reduced by 5 trillion rubles: from the requested 22 trillion rubles by the RF Ministry of Defense. to allocated to him 17 trillion. rubles. Here is such a sequester is obtained.

Everyone remembers how sharply (without embarrassment in terms addressed to Mr. A. Siluanov) S.K. Shoigu, when he learned about the proposal of the Ministry of Finance to reduce the expenses of the RF Ministry of Defense for the renewal of weapons and military equipment to 12 trillion. rubles. Following this, we were all simply "fascinated" by the statement of Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation D. Rogozin about the refusal to modernize old models of military equipment in favor of building new, promising machines. For some reason, this “crafty” phrase immediately felt a lack of funds for all areas of rearmament, because quite recently the same Dmitry Olegovich convincingly argued that modernization is no worse than building new models and cited as an example the modernization of the TARKR project 1144.

And there are serious reasons for this. In recent years, the situation with the financing of all aspects of the life of our society has been constantly deteriorating, the crisis has affected. Syria and Ukraine, the deployment of the Arctic group, the growth of instability in the Central Asian region required more and more expenses. Against this background, the voices of our homegrown liberals about "defense sufficiency" and a reasonable approach to spending the state budget sounded like a Jesuit. In defiance of them, jingoistic patriots and left-wing radicals began to talk about the fact that the third world war was on the verge, and our rulers did not bother with this situation at all ... Moreover, the guarantor of the Constitution himself suggested that the military-industrial complex magnates think about conversion projects of their industries and enterprises. Others began to sing mantras about the "fifth column" and its treacherous policies. Both “on the left” and “on the right”, the guardians of the good of the state and the Russian people beat themselves with their heel in the chest and claim that it is their position that is the most faithful and far-sighted ... And who in such a situation should be trusted by a simple man in the street, “where to go to the poor peasant” !? (With)

So what is really happening? Why are officials who, according to their official position, it would seem, should, on the contrary, care with every fiber of their soul about the growth of the military power of the state and its armed forces, are forced to sequester funding for the rearmament program of the RF Armed Forces?

It seems to me that today's program of equipping the army and navy with promising types of weapons and military equipment has come across a new, changed situation, which those who, as usual, are preparing for "past wars" cannot understand. That is why there are requirements for the mass production of "new", and in fact several improved models of traditional weapons and military equipment. Which, no doubt, are also needed. But they cannot fundamentally influence the balance of power in the confrontation with the world hegemon and his henchmen from NATO. We need a radically new solution that knocks out the trump cards of numerical superiority from the hands of NATO generals over our Armed Forces ...

And now the president of the country is speaking and talking about the appearance, the action of which is based on "new physical principles." These are laser, hypersonic and beam weapons. This is a very expensive weapon. Therefore, a legitimate question arises: “Where will the funds come from for this fundamentally new weapon?” The shortest way is to redistribute the available funds, and if this is not enough, then reduce the purchase of traditional weapons. It must be admitted that this has already happened in our state when the unforgettable N.S. Khrushchev, for the sake of establishing a new type of armed forces (RVSN), put ships and planes under the knife. The famous reduction of 1200 thousand people of the USSR Armed Forces. Apparently, according to the model of 1961, the same “re-grading” has taken place today: the construction of large NKs was abandoned (as they say, until better times), it is transferred to the right and the purchase of the PAK TA T-50 and the innovative T-14 tank on the Armata platform is reduced . Fortunately, the decision to continue work on the Sarmat, Barguzin, Rubezh remains unchanged, the construction of Boreev-A, Ash-M, Voronezh, Neba-U and other types of weapons and military equipment will continue providing strategic parity with our incredible overseas partners.

But the future, as noted by V.V. Putin, for weapons based on new physical principles, such as, for example, hypersound. And here, according to Deputy Minister of Defense Y. Borisov, we are 10 years ahead of our partners because of the puddle.

So, in November 2016, a new hypersonic weapon was tested - “product 4202” or “Yu-71”. The ICBM equipped with it was launched from the Dombarovsky position area in the Orenburg region. At an altitude of about 100 km, an apparatus separated from the rocket, which, at a speed of up to Mach 15, hit a target at the Kamchatka Kura training ground. Before entering the dense layers of the atmosphere, the apparatus made a maneuver in altitude and course, after which it performed a "slide" and dived almost vertically on the target. The anti-aircraft maneuver and hypersonic speed of such a warhead, in addition to the missile defense system, guarantees it a breakthrough of all existing and future US missile defense systems.

According to the general opinion, the Navy suffered more than others from the sequestration of funding for SAP-2025, which will receive only 2.6 trillion out of the requested 4.7. rub. And this despite the fact that the construction of "Boreev" and "Ash" will continue. And what will the infrastructure and general-purpose forces so necessary for the fleet get? This is where you remember the words of D. Rogozin about replenishing the fleet with “muscular frigates and corvettes”, and not ships of the 1st rank ...

But even in this extremely difficult situation, the fleet plans to increase its combat capabilities by equipping ships with fundamentally new, hypersonic weapons.

So, on April 21, 2017, the Minister of Defense of Russia announced the successful completion of the first combat mission by a nuclear submarine of a new project.
Presumably, this nuclear submarine cruiser K-560 "Severodvinsk" (pr. 885) in the period April 10-15, 2017 from the White Sea made the first launch of the Zirkon-S GZPKR from a marine carrier. The missile successfully hit its designated target. And more recently, a message appears that our new product 3M-22, better known as the Zircon-S hypersonic anti-ship missile, reached a speed of Mach 8 during tests. True, the developers themselves confirmed only Mach 6.

The first GZPKR Zirkon-S complexes are planned to be installed on the Peter the Great TARKR during the modernization of the ship, scheduled for 2018-2020. In total, the cruiser will be equipped with 10 3S-14 vertical launchers, each of which can accommodate 3 Zircon missiles. Thus, the ship will carry up to 30 Zircons on its board. This will significantly expand the combat capabilities of the ship, increase its combat stability, and will also significantly expand the range of tasks performed. At one time, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral V. Chirkov, said that by 2020, a "grouping of strategic non-nuclear deterrence forces" equipped with long-range precision weapons should be created in the Russian Navy by 2020. The core of this grouping will be Project 885M Yasen nuclear submarines, upgraded Project 949M nuclear submarines, and Project 1144 heavy nuclear missile cruisers (http://www.interfax.ru/russia/549055).

It is assumed that the GZPKR 3M-22 will be placed on the new RPKSN / SSVs of the Kalina type and the upgraded Tu-160M2 missile carriers. It is also possible to place them on mobile coastal missile systems. All this should increase the ability of the fleet forces to solve the tasks assigned to them.

But missile systems like the Zircon place higher demands on the quality of target designation. And at long distances (the expected range of 3M-22 is from 400-500 to 1000 km) and in conditions of time pressure, this task can only be solved by space means of target designation. After all, a rocket flying on hypersound must receive information in real time, without distortion and interference. And this is possible only when using space communication lines, which was implemented in the 3M-22 product.

It is not for nothing that the meeting of V.V. Putin with members of the Security Council and representatives of Roskosmos, held on May 22 this year in Sochi.

The measures taken should, to a certain extent, neutralize the advantage of the surface forces of the fleets of the NATO countries over the forces of the Russian Navy. But, unfortunately, only in the near sea zone. But in the far zone, only our fourth-generation nuclear submarines will be able to effectively resist the ships of the US Navy and NATO. And we don't have that many of them.

I specifically did not touch upon the issues of equipping other types and branches of the military with new types of weapons and military equipment, believing that the members of the forum, who gave the best years of their lives to serve in their ranks, would do it better than me.

In conclusion, I would like to note that the leadership of the country and the armed forces are doing everything to ensure that the dreams of the Washington hawks of an unrequited "instant global strike" on the centers of military-political control of Russia and its armed forces are shattered by our asymmetric response to lovers of the forced democratization of sovereign countries and their peoples.

In the coming month, the drafting of the new State Armaments Program for the period 2018-2025 will be completed, for which 17 trillion rubles have been allocated. recalls the conditions under which this program was prepared and how it is connected with the current rearmament plans.

Big trade for a budget

The history of collecting and agreeing on wishes for the SAP-2025 estimate is probably worthy of a separate article. We will only briefly present the main milestones of this fascinating process that have been published in the press.

The first approach to the target dates back to the period when SAP-2025 was designed in the standard version: the new ten-year program should be launched in the sixth year of the previous one. According to this rule, SAP-2025 began in 2016.

On December 19, 2014, the Minister of Defense stated: “Work has been completed on the formation of a type of advanced models of weapons and equipment with similar functional and technical characteristics. This will reduce the cost of the State Armaments Program until 2025 from 55 to 30 trillion rubles while maintaining the necessary volumes of equipment.”

That is, the military emphasized that they need 55 trillion (2.9 times more than at the previous SAP-2020), but, so be it, they agree on 30 (only 1.6 times). Technically, there was nothing wrong with that. For example, the initial volume of SAP-2020 in the version of the full wish list was estimated at 36 trillion rubles, but in the end they agreed on 19.6 trillion.

The answer to Znamenka's application followed soon. In February 2015, a source said that sturgeon should be cut by about half: funding at the level of 70 percent of the SAP-2020, that is, about 14 trillion rubles, is recognized as sufficient.

But time passed, the economic situation did not get better, the program was not accepted, and it began to be reduced in length. Now it was about launching the plan for the period 2018-2025. For this option, as Kommersant reported in the summer of 2016, the military asked for 24 trillion rubles. In September 2016, as the publication learned, at a meeting with President Putin, Shoigu and the head took place: the military demanded to agree on the GPV-2026 budget within 22 trillion rubles, Siluanov insisted on 12 trillion.

The result of a long swearing, as far as one can judge, was a compromise: in the winter of 2016/2017, the figures were brought together, having received a framework budget for SAP-2025 within 17 trillion rubles, which was written about in mid-May 2017. That is, in the end, the opinion of the source of the military-industrial complex from February 2015 turned out to be a fairly accurate assessment of the final result.

Now the trade is no longer around general expenses (they are fixed), but around the distribution of funds by type of armed forces and the nature of work.

The only part that is completely understandable and executable without alternatives is the re-equipment of nuclear forces. The main types of missiles, with the exception of the heavy Sarmat, have been developed, although not all of them have yet been put into service (as in the case of Rubezh and Barguzin), and aeroballistic hypersonic combat equipment is being created. But the expected expiration of the Prague Treaty on the Reduction of Offensive Arms in 2021 plays an important role here. In any case, this is a topic for a separate article.

Return to earth

The priorities of SAP-2025 in terms of distribution by type of armed forces, as far as can be judged from the leaks published in the press (by the same Kommersant), are undergoing changes. Behind the general talk about "staking on intelligent systems" lies a significant replenishment of general-purpose forces, primarily the ground forces and the airborne forces.

The starting breakdown of the SAP-2020 made the “infantry” a poor relative: the ground forces and the airborne troops received only 2.6 trillion rubles, while the fleet received 4.7 trillion, the air force - 4.5 trillion and another 3.4 trillion - for airborne space defense (from early warning systems to air defense systems).

As a result, this grid was never sustained: for example, a significant part of the money pledged for the fleet did not reach it due to the unavailability of the industry or the unfinished products. However, the balance of power is clearly shown. And the ground crews also received far from everything that was included in the project - for the same reasons.

Just in SAP-2025, this imbalance is planned to be corrected. According to some reports, up to a quarter of its budget (that is, over 4.2 trillion rubles) will go to the ground forces and the Airborne Forces, whose importance after the crisis of 2014-2015 in Ukraine and following the results of the Syrian campaign was overestimated upward.

In the second half of the 2010s, serial deliveries of new generation military equipment were to begin on single platforms, first demonstrated in 2015: Armata, Kurganets-25, Boomerang, as well as on platforms for the Arctic. We will see this process already in the new SAP. It can be assumed that more or less ready-made samples of modern robotic systems will also appear there.

A difficult situation has developed with the ambitious project of the Unified Control System at the tactical level (ESU TZ) - an automated command and control system (ACCS) at levels from the brigade and below. According to SAP-2020, by the end of the program, 40 brigades were to receive the tested serial sets of the system, it was planned to spend about 300 billion rubles on this. That did not happen.

At the moment, the testing of ESU TK in the Taman division continues, and the opinion of the military is rather contradictory: they are increasingly privately pointing out that the system, to which there were many questions even at the previous stages, in its current form will most likely not suit them, it can only be used as a basis for creating a new ACCS.

Nevertheless, not everything is so bad along the network-centric line: reconnaissance, control and communications systems (KRUS) are serially supplied to the troops, their use in interspecific groupings is being worked out at training grounds. The equipment has been field tested in Syria.

Waiting for peritonitis

With the fleet, the situation is simple: they will cut it, without waiting for the recurrence of the story with the construction of the lead frigate Admiral Gorshkov. Recall that this ship was laid down in 2006, launched in 2010 and, as of May 2017, has not been accepted by the fleet due to shortcomings, although eight frigates of this type. The revision of views on the construction of the fleet, according to available information, is confirmed by the reduction of its share in the GPV to 2.6 trillion rubles.

Therefore, one should hardly expect the opening of new projects in SAP-2025: the long-awaited new aircraft carrier, as well as a large order for the construction of nuclear missile cruisers of the Leader type (even if only in the form of only the head hull). And vice versa - the emphasis on mass serial commissioning of projects of frigates, corvettes and small fleets that have already been mastered, at least in general terms, seems to be a reasonable choice.

In fact, the Gorshkovs were considered precisely as a project for a mass series (in different years, the estimate fluctuated between 24-30 units) in order to replace the withdrawal of Soviet-built ships, which took place in the first half of the 1990s. The transfer of resources to fundamentally new projects of heavy ships of the 1st rank may negatively affect the saturation of the ship's composition. As a result, the Navy runs the risk of being left with a diverse pile of unfinished and unfinished units instead of finished combat units.

During this period, it would be nice to solve three pressing problems with the armament of the fleet. The first is the Poliment-Redut anti-aircraft missile and artillery system, an ambitious project to create an integrated control system for the entire air defense circuit for the Gorshkovs. Taking into account the role of these ships in the combat composition of the fleet, this task must be solved without alternatives and in the shortest possible time.

The second is related to the specific architecture of the electronic weapons of the project 20380 corvettes: the Redut air defense system should work through the 5P27 Furke-2 radar, but it does this, to put it mildly, in an extremely peculiar way, which is why to achieve full combat readiness of the complex on the ones already delivered since 2011 the ships have not yet succeeded. It’s too late to ask why everything turned out the way it did, it rather makes sense to start figuring out how much additional funds will have to be spent so that the fleet has combat-ready corvettes with Redoubt in one form or another.

The third problem is related to the serious backlog of the Russian fleet in the fight against modern sea mines. At the moment, the only new type of ships in this direction is the base minesweeper of project 12700 "Alexandrite". It is being built in insufficient quantities, and many questions remain about the composition and capabilities of its anti-mine complex. In this direction, I want to avoid the result of the classic "you bought the wrong thing and too little."

And after solving these problems, it makes sense to discuss whether it will work out or not with modular nuclear-powered ships of the “fifth generation”, when the Zircon will be put on the Husky and in what five-year period we will launch a nuclear aircraft carrier.

In the air and space

As part of the aerospace forces, the SAP-2020 solved two problems: to provide modern serial equipment in appreciable quantities and to create fundamentally new models.

It was possible to cope with the first task, although not without overlays. As a result, the Air Force is well equipped, although it uses, apart from the outgoing Su-27P, four types of heavy fighters of the T-10 platform (Su-27SM, Su-30M2, Su-30SM, Su-35S), as well as two attack helicopters (Mi -28N and Ka-52).

It would be nice to reduce this zoo, especially taking into account two more types of fighters: the MiG-29SMT purchased (and separately, the previously used Algerian export aircraft) and the MiG-35 on eternal marriage (37 aircraft according to SAP-2020 smoothly moved to SAP-2025). In any case, we will have to look for some solution to the problem of the accumulated diversity within the framework of SAP-2025.

For helicopters, all requirements have been met - with the exception of import substitution for the production of turboshaft engines (but this has not yet affected deliveries to the troops). Aircraft is performed at a good level. Serial production of long-range anti-aircraft missile systems (S-400) and air defense systems of the near zone (Pantsir-S) has been launched. But with the development of new technology, the timing went to the right. According to the original plans, the fifth-generation T-50 fighter (PAK FA) was already supposed to go to the Air Force linear formations. The same applies to the S-500 air defense / missile defense system, 10 divisions of which from 2015 to 2020 were supposed to enter the troops. Both samples were delayed, and funds for their serial purchase were transferred to SAP-2025.

The PAK DA bomber project will most likely have to be postponed or greatly shifted in time. This is evident, among other things, from the intensification of work to restore the production of Tu-160 aircraft in Kazan: the Bolivar of the Russian budget is unlikely to endure two, at least in the next decade.

In an unclear state is a high-speed helicopter project. The military is interested in this technology, but in 2013-2014, the very first research in this area, using a flying laboratory based on the Mi-24, gave a disappointing answer: the existing scientific and technical groundwork does not allow us to solve the task. However, work in this direction has continued, and the development of the necessary technologies will become an important part of the fundamental section of SAP-2025.

There is no game without a hitch

A feature of the next SAP-2025 will be the exhaustion of the so-called "scientific and technical reserves". By the beginning of the 1990s (and even later in a number of areas), the defense industry had accumulated a fair amount of interesting solutions and opportunities, which it implemented mainly under the large SAP-2020 budget.

The industry would be satisfied with another gross order for an already mastered series, but the military makes it clear that they are interested in one of two options: either fundamentally new samples with qualitatively different characteristics, or a cheap upgrade of existing equipment.

The main need for weapons and military equipment has already been closed or will be closed by the beginning of the 2020s at the end of SAP-2020. At the same time, the military directly say that in a number of areas they would be satisfied not with “death stars”, but with mass and cheap solutions built on existing technologies. For example, this applies to nuclear submarines. The fleet has been asking for something like a large series of multi-purpose boats of project 671RTM (K) at the modern technological level for several years now, but the industry is still mysteriously promising a “fifth generation”, which has yet to be developed.

Under these conditions, in SAP-2025, it is planned to reorient towards large-scale financing of defense R&D, within which a new groundwork should be created for subsequent R&D to create ready-made models of equipment and weapons. The result will be new technologies, solutions and materials that can be used from the mid-2020s to develop next-generation technology.

In parallel with this, state financing of the production and technological re-equipment of the defense industry will continue. About this, in particular, in an interview with Krasnaya Zvezda, the Deputy Minister of Defense. From his words, we can conclude that SAP-2025 will have its own satellite, similar to the federal program for the development of the defense complex, which operated together with SAP-2020. Three trillion rubles were allocated for it, by the way.

The capacities created under this program will almost certainly burden the conditions for a parallel increase in the production of high-tech civilian products.

Russia's new state arms program 2018-2025 will be announced in early July. Meanwhile, on May 16, it became known that the military-industrial complex and the army would receive less for modernization than previously planned. And, much more. Instead of 20 trillion. rubles - 17 trillion. Despite this, the President Vladimir Putin insists on providing the national armed forces with modern weapons at a level of at least 70% by 2020.

Judging by official announcements, priority is given to the development of ground forces. This is largely determined by the aggressiveness of the West throughout the space from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Briefly, we list the threats coming from Europe.

First, in Ukraine, the likelihood of state persecution of Russians just because they are Russians increases. It is clear that sooner or later Moscow will run out of patience, and it will slam the "Bandera" bedbug. Secondly, the rapidly impoverished Baltic countries are trying to convert Russophobia into hard cash, therefore, any provocations can be expected. Thirdly, political and economic instability is growing in the EU due to the migration tsunami. Fourth, behind all this is an indebted America that is comfortable seeing the Old World as space for a new war for its global hegemony.

In other words, faced with open hostility from NATO, as well as the inconsistency and unpredictability of the administration trump, Russia is forced to strengthen, first of all, its land army.

However, in contrast to the Pentagon's strategy to provide American troops with ultra-modern equipment of tomorrow, the Russian Defense Ministry seeks to have "good materiel" today, and in the ranks. In other words, everything is done so as not to be between the past and the future, "if tomorrow there is a war."

Probably the main disappointment of the new seven-year rearmament plan will be that by 2025 the T-14 will not become the main battle tank of our troops. Despite the fact that an order for 100 Armats was announced, most likely purchases will be limited to 20-30 units per year. Thus, the T-72B3 balanced in price and combat capabilities or its modernized version will remain the most numerous. At the same time, Russian armored vehicles will have to assess the new threat from the M3A1 grenade launcher, which is replacing the current M3 Carl Gustaf in the US Army.

It is also clear that the promising Kurganets-25 tracked infantry fighting vehicle, as well as the Boomerang wheeled armored personnel carrier, are unlikely to be commissioned in 2019. In particular, it is still not clear which engine - YaMZ-780 or 2V-06 - will be chosen for Kurganets. There are also questions about the 45-mm automatic cannon with a telescopic shot for infantry fighting vehicles or armored personnel carriers of the new generation. In general, we can count dozens of technical problems that have been leaked to open sources and that developers have yet to solve.

Note that the refinement of military armored vehicles to the mind is not a quick matter, especially since we are talking about a fundamentally different layout and filling than their predecessors. For example, more than a dozen years have been working on the BMP-3!

On the other hand, this is exactly the case when the haste of death is similar. As a temporary measure, the Ministry of Defense will purchase several hundred Berezhok and BMP-3 BMP-2Ms, as well as repair and upgrade the existing armored vehicle fleet. By and large, the tragedy due to the delay of "Kurganets" and "Boomerang" should not be arranged.

But it can be said with confidence that the focus of the department Sergei Shoigu there will be air and missile defense . The army will continue to receive Buk-M3, Tor-M2 and S-400. However, during the next period of the state rearmament program, the S-500 complex, most likely, will not be purchased. It still needs to be developed for a long time. However, the potential adversary also faced numerous problems regarding the new aircraft. The Pentagon has a clear understanding that the F-35 will not be able to provide air superiority, as well as the suppression of air defenses on land. Even if the Americans return to the F-22S, this will not happen until 2025.

With a high degree of probability, changes in the state rearmament program will also affect the Aerospace Forces. The resumption of efforts to produce 50-60 Tu-160 bombers and the modernization of the existing fleet to the Tu-160M2 standard indicate a delay in the commissioning of the PAK DA complex. As for the promising aviation project PAK FA / T-50, small-scale production of this machine will begin in the coming years. However, the main purchases will fall on proven Su-35, Su-34, Su-30 aircraft. We should also expect the acquisition of a small batch of MiG-35s. There are no questions at all about the Ka-52 and Mi-28N attack helicopters. The Russian Helicopters holding company will definitely not be left without orders.

Capacities for the production of ammunition will also be loaded to the fullest, and the production of precision-guided missiles, bombs and shells will double. This is connected, first of all, with the conclusions from the difficult Syrian campaign.

As for the naval forces, their modest share in the 2018-2025 rearmament program is caused not so much by the downplaying of the role of the Russian fleet as such, but by the current moment. Our country has yet to master new shipbuilding technologies. In other words, the time of the Storm aircraft carrier and nuclear destroyers has not yet come: building them the old fashioned way is not only economically inexpedient, but generally ruinous for the budget. Only with the commissioning of the latest Zvezda complex in the Far East will the government finally have the opportunity to order sophisticated marine equipment with a large displacement, and at a reasonable price. So we have to wait another 7 years.

On the other hand, the Russian Navy will maintain the current rate of acquisition of conventional and nuclear submarines. There is also no doubt that the construction of missile corvettes and light frigates, which have proven their worth in the Syrian conflict, will accelerate. Moreover, the frigates of Project 22350 of the Admiral Gorshkov class will be optimized for solving new air defense tasks. It is logical to expect the modernization of already existing warships, including the Admiral Kuznetsov.

Thus, the new rearmament program, on the one hand, ensures the containment of the aggressive NATO bloc, on the other hand, is based on the lessons of the Syrian crisis. As an American military expert writes in this regard Jay Hawk, who analyzed the 2018-2025 rearmament program, the Russian army is “a silent confirmation of the sad fact that Vladimir Putin is perceived as a worthy negotiating partner with the West only because Moscow is immune to political and military pressure. As before, the Russian weapons are intended as a last resort.”